Diesel Prices 2025: Predictions and Preparations

Diesel prices influence a truck driver’s day-to-day business, impacting their profitability and operations. As we progress through 2025, staying informed about fuel trends and preparing for potential fluctuations is important. Here’s what you need to know to navigate diesel prices in 2025 and make smarter decisions on the road.

Predictions

While no one can predict exact prices, industry experts can analyze available data to provide a general expectation of market trends.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administrations (EIA)’s latest data, diesel prices are projected to decrease in 2025, primarily attributed to anticipated lower crude oil* prices and increased refinery capacity. (Source) In their December 2024 Short Term Energy outlook, the agency projected that the average diesel price for 2025 would be $3.61 per gallon. This projection would represent a decline in diesel pricing for the third consecutive year.

U.S. Retail Diesel Prices Chart: Shown above, the price of diesel has continued to decline throughout the first quarter of 2025, as predicted.

Market conditions, particularly oil and gas prices, heavily impact the fuel industry, as supply and demand drive their fluctuations. In the first few weeks of January, the EIA found that diesel prices across most of the nation continued to climb. Diesel prices across the U.S. increased by 21 cents compared from the same time last year. (Source) Keep in mind, there are influences that affect diesel pricing:

• Crude Oil Prices: Diesel is refined from crude oil, so when oil prices fluctuate, diesel usually follows.
• Seasonal Trends: Diesel tends to cost more in the winter because it’s used in heating oil production, leading to spike hikes during the cold months but seeing relief in the spring and summer.
• Regulations: Environmental mandates and regulations can increase costs for refineries, which trickle down to truckers.
• Distribution Costs: Local factors, like refinery outages, trucking shortages, or pipeline issues, can cause regional price differences.
• Natural Disasters: Weather events, like last year’s hurricanes Helene and Milton, can impact oil production, diesel delivery, and demand among other elements in both short- and long-term timelines.
• Geopolitical Events: Overseas conflicts or a Presidential administration can influence pricing whether through policy changes, production, inflation, etcetera.

Diesel is both an influencer of the economy and is influenced by the economy. It is vital to the U.S. economy. Trucks powered by diesel engines transport most of the products consumers use. Most vehicles like farming, construction, and related equipment also use diesel and fuel.

While prices are rising at the start of the year, the EIA predicts that diesel costs will remain relatively stable throughout the year.

Preparations

While you may not be able to control diesel prices, you are able to control your truck’s fuel efficiency. Here are a few tips to help you navigate making smarter decisions on the road.

Maintenance for Better Fuel Economy
Routine maintenance can make a significant difference when it comes to diesel consumption. First, regularly service your engine. This means regular oil and filter changes, cleaning and replacing the air filters, calibration, and valve adjustments, to name a few. Use low viscosity oils to reduce engine friction. Keep your tires properly inflated to reduce rolling resistance. Reduce idling time by installing auxiliary power units (APUs). As a pro tip, invest in a fuel monitoring system to track fuel efficiency and identify areas for improvement on your trips.

Regional Fuel Prices
Diesel prices vary by region due to factors like taxes, refinery proximity, and state regulations. Knowing which regions have lower diesel prices can help you plan refueling stops strategically.

East Coast diesel prices are typically higher due to shipping and distribution costs. In the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions, prices are generally lower due to the proximity to refineries and pipelines. The California and West Coast regions are always on the pricier side due to stricter environmental laws.

External Factors to Watch
Stay prepared by looking for factors that could shift diesel prices.
Weather Events: Natural disasters or refinery disruptions along the Gulf Coast can cause temporary price spikes.
Geopolitical Events: Conflicts in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, can drive crude oil prices higher.

Technology to Track Diesel Prices
There are apps and tools that make it easier than ever to monitor diesel prices and find cost-saving options along your route.
GasBuddy: Provides real-time prices and allows drivers to compare costs across stations.
Trucker Path: Offers additional truck-specific features, including parking availability, weigh station statuses, and truck stop amenities.
Other apps to track diesel prices include FleetAdvance, Waze, and Mudflap. Each app provides real-time fuel price tracking, to help drivers save both time and money while ensuring convenience and compliance with trucking regulations.

2025 Diesel Prices on the Road

By understanding these factors and implementing strategies on the road, you can significantly reduce the impact of diesel price fluctuations on your trips. Whether it’s through optimizing fuel efficiency or closely monitoring market trends, preparation is key to staying ahead. Managing diesel costs helps to ensure long-term success and stability of your business.

*Note: In trucking, crude oil refers to the raw, unrefined petroleum extracted from the ground, which is transported to refineries, where its processed it into usable products like gasoline and diesel.